TRANSLATION: The Purpose and Framework of the Investigation: The Advisory Commission of The Global Environment Agency Chief:

(Approximately 6,760 characters)


Translated by Ryan Morrison

The Purpose and Framework of the Investigation

The Advisory Commission of The Global Environment Agency Chief


The Deliberative Framework:

The Research Committee on Adaptation and the Impacts of Global Warming (Mimura Nobuo, Ibaraki University Professor)

Working groups arranged by area (food provisions, water environment, water resources, natural ecosystems, disaster prevention, coast-line cities, health, citizen’s affairs, and developing countries)


Term of deliberation: November 23, 2007 – June 18, 2008

The goal of this research project is a) to present all scientific findings made to date regarding the impact of and adaptation to climate change in Japan and developing countries, b) to put forth the concept of “smart adaptation” (i.e., adaptation that is effective and efficient), and c) to offer projections on future trends and the general direction of climate change in Japan and developing countries.


Global Environmental Research: General Promotional Costs
「The major differences with the “Project on the Forecast of Global Warming」


Global Environment Research: General Promotional Costs.

“Project on the Forecast of Global Warming”


The Impact of Global Warming and the Commission for Adaptation Research.

Report on “Smart Adaptation to Climate Change”

The responsible organizations and the disclosure of results


Research groups

2005-2009

A group of researchers was assigned to each subject, with 14 agencies and 44 individuals participating.

1st term results were published May 29.


Advisory Committee of the Environment Ministry’s Global Environment Bureau.

“Research Committee on the Impact of and Adaptation to Global Warming”

November 2007 – June 2008

Conducted over 26 conferences with 43 council members and 7 consultants (including work groups)

Report made public on June 18.

The Impact


Assessment of each of the warming effects. Assessment of findings using cutting-edge scientific methods. (Though conducted from 5 different fields, these assessments are not exhaustive.)


Exhaustive sorting of the research findings on warming impact assessment in Japan:

a) Sorting out the mechanisms of global warming and its effects

b) Assessing warming effects observed to date

c) Projecting future impacts

The Adaptation


The quantitative assessments will be conducted during the next term.


Recommendation for ways of “smart adaptation”:

a) Identification of all adaptation strategies considered up through the present

b) Sorting out subjects, implementation methods, and possible adaptation strategies

c) Introduction of previous reference cases, etc.



Future Strategies


Appraisal of the numerous areas using “stabilization scenarios”; and the implementation of damage amount calculations using a cumulative approach.


The utilization of basic data for administrative policy, including data from all related agencies.



Because multiple researchers will be involved in the process, the findings will be applied with joint consent.



Principles Conclusions of the Report


1. Here in Japan, the many impacts of climate change have already been observed; moreover, the speed of these changes has markedly accelerated since entering the 21st century.


2. In the foreseeable future we can expect even larger impacts from global warming, and this will greatly affect all of our lives in a variety of ways.


3. If these effects of climate change are compounded by the particular vulnerability of Japan’s natural and social structures, then even severer effects can be expected, posing risks to social safety and stability.

4. Thus, a “smart adaptation” (i.e., effective and efficient adaptation) is needed to combat the effects of climate change.

5. In order to build a framework in which effective adaptation policy can be administered, it is necessary to draw up adaptation plans for Japan while continuing with further investigation elsewhere.

6. Support for and cooperation with particularly vulnerable developing countries is essential.

7. Finally, while sorting out the most recent findings in science, we continue to seek out new research methods.

Impact of Climate Change on Foods and Provisions

Climate change effects already evident in all cities and prefectures of Japan

Warming Effects Observable at Present

The emergence of white immature grain (clouded brown rice）

Checked rice (i.e., brown rice with cracks in it)

Earlier wheat and “young panicle” formation, and an increase in “stemming” and frosting damage

Ukikawa symptoms in Mandarin oranges, and poor coloration in grapes

90% of surveyed prefectures answered that they have noticed warming effects on fruit trees,

vegetables, and flowers; 40% of surveyed prefectures noticed warming impact on livestock.

Later seaweed harvests, etc.



Warming Effects Expected in the Future

Insufficient rice ripening, and worsening rice

The further push north to find suitable lands for apple cultivation

Further move north due to pest damage caused by high temperatures

Water shortages during rice-planting season

Decrease in habitat for salmon; habitat for herring pushed further to the north

Slow growth due to worsening of the samma fish’s feeding environment; increase in spawning due

to the improved feed environment during spawning season

Takifugu fish pushed northward for suitable aqua-farming





Figure 1　White immature grain from irrigated rice

Figure 2　Ukikawa symptoms in mandarin oranges due to high temperatures and extensive rainfall

Figure 3　Changes in apple production and distribution, and numbers of suitable lands for apple growing


Water environment ・The Impact on Water Resources



Increased risks of both draught and heavy rains



Warming Effects Observable at Present

Due to record-low rainfall, there have been more water-intake regulations, more water stoppages, and more cases of water supplies being timed.

Abnormal growth of blue-green algae in lakes (damage to water purification, landscape, etc.）

Underground salinization and hydration along coastal regions

Decreased possibility of using subterranean waters, etc.



Warming Effects Expected in the Future

Increased risk of draught

Increase in slope disaster due to higher frequency of short-term, concentrated heavy rains

Elevated water temperatures in rivers, lakes, dams, and subterranean waters

Increased probability for growth of blue-green algae

A rise in sea levels, accompanied by subterranean salinization and hydration



Figure 3　The possible effects that a decrease in snow (caused by climate-change) might have on water resource security and annual stream-flow fluctuation patterns

Earlier outflow periods

Decrease in the amount of river outflow

Occurrences of ineffective discharging

Insufficient flow rates, even if earlier soil-puddling periods are seen

Inability to maintain reservoirs

Drying up of dams



The Impact on Natural Ecosystems



The various effects produced by changes in both environment and interspecial relationships


Warming Effects Observable at Present

　Decline of beech forests, aplastic pine-tree decay, decrease in vegetation in alpine regions

　Dispersion of wild boar, Japanese deer, and other species due to the decrease in snow accumulation

　Stagnation of vertical circulation of lakes; decrease in dissolved oxygen at lake bottom

　Narrowing of distribution ranges for cold-water fish in fresh-water regions

　Along coastal lines, an increase in southern species, a decrease in northern species, the whitening of coral reef, and even extinction of some species

　Effects on biological production in the outer seas

　Earlier flowering periods; later stages of leaves’ yellowing, reddening, and falling

Cases of late blooming due to insufficient “dormancy release” caused by low temperatures


Warming Effects Expected in the Future

　Decrease in lands suitable for beech-tree forests, subalpine belts, subarctic regions, and coniferous forests

　Rapid decrease in alpine plant communities in Hokkaido

　Bamboo groves expansion, and pine-tree decay

　CO2 emissions from forested soil in cold regions

　Increased stagnation of vertical circulation in lakes and ocean waters

　Changes in species distribution in freshwater regions; encroachment of alien species

　Negative effects on the food chain caused by a decrease in sea-ice

　Changes in migration routes for migratory species

　Worsening effects due to marine acidification

　Decrease of ice algae; food-chain alterations in the Okhotsk Sea

　Spread of coral disease and whitening; reduction in sandy beach regions, etc.



Figure 4　Distribution of alpine plant communities at Yatsugatake

Alpine plant communities



Figure 5　Cases of alpine plants that have experienced effects of climate change

Disaster Prevention and Impact on Coastal Cities

Increased damage due to heavy rains, typhoons, and higher sea-levels

Warming Effects Observable at Present

　High-tide damage at Nabae coast of Kochi prefecture in 2004

　Increased occurrence of corridor flooding at Itsukushima Shrine

　Subterranean flood damage caused by record levels of rain in northern Kyushu

　Increased frequency of short-term, concentrated heavy rains in narrow regions

　Decreased possibility of a stable supply from dams in the Kiso reservoirs

Etc.


Warming Effects Expected in the Future

　Increased strength of typhoons

　Possible high-tide damage in bays facing southeast, due to changes in typhoon course

　Increased wind speeds and stronger ocean waves due to typhoons

　Increase of overtopping waves and shore erosion due to higher sea levels

　The disappearance of sandy beaches due to higher sea levels (90% of sand will disappear with a one-meter rise in sea levels)

　Decrease in water regulation safety for all of Japan’s water systems

　Increased occurrences of landslide disasters due to snowmelt

Figure 6　Number of cases of 50mm+ of hourly precipitation by decade (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism, 2008)

Number of occurrences of 50+ mm/h of rain

Figure 7　Likely change in daily rainfall precipitation over next century

（2108 / 2008）

Rate of change



The Effects on Health



Increase in cases of hyperthermic stress, heat stroke, and infectious diseases



Warming Effects Observable at Present

　The relationship between air temperature and death rates

　A record number of heat stroke cases seen in 2007

　Expansion of regions with dengue and other fever viruses transmitted by tiger mosquitoes

Japanese-encephalitis vector mosquitoes invading from Southeast Asia

　A move north in seawater; biblio-barnifecus bacterial detection



Warming Effects Expected in the Future

　Increase in excess mortalities due to hyperthermic stress

　Increase in number of patients suffering from heat stroke (Tokyo-based forecast)

　Possible regional expansion of dengue-transmitting tiger mosquitoes and yellow-fever mosquitoes, etc.


Figure 8　Trends in number of heat stroke infections, arranged by city

Total number of infections special infections

Providing materials

Figure 9.　Projected average January temperatures and distribution of the yellow-fever mosquitoes (2100年)

Regions inhabitable by the yellow-fever mosquitoes (Taipei and regions of similar temperature)

Regions likely to see more cases of dengue virus spread by yellow-fever mosquitoes (regions with temperatures similar to Taipei, where the dengue virus is already an epidemic)


The Effects on the City Life and Citizenry of Japan


Effects on safety, health, economic life, comfort, and cultural life

Warming Effects Observable at Present

　Rise in international prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans

　Earlier blossoming; later stages of leaves’ reddening and falling

　Decrease in availability in the tourist and sports industries (e.g., ski resorts, etc)

　Increase in cases of flooding at Lake Suwa, Omiwatari, and Itsukushima Shrine; etc.



Warming Effects Expected in the Future

　Loss of dwelling, property and life due to extreme weather damage

　Effects on regional communications facilities and transportation systems due to extreme weather

　Increase in cases of death, heat stroke, and infectious diseases due to thermal waves

　Increased burden on household budgets due to the extended use of air conditioning and the increased prices of agricultural products

　Greater levels of discomfort due to extremely hot days and hot tropical nights

　Effects on tourist and recreation industries due to changes in ecosystems, the disappearance of sandy beaches, and the decrease in moorlands

　Effects on sports industry due to later seasons and decrease in snow precipitation

　Loss of a sense of the seasons; profound effects on regional culture due to snow shortages and changes in cherry-blossom season

Etc.





Figure 10　K-1 Change in number of hot summer days in Japan according to model (Unit: Day)



Figure 11　K-1 Change in number of summer days with heavy rain in Japan according to model (Unit: Day）



The Effects on Developing Countries



Japan is faced with many challenges regarding how it should actively contribute to the highly vulnerable developing countries.





Asia

■Water Resources

・Due to melting Himalayan glaciers, an increase in floods, rock slides, and water-resource damage is expected in the next 20 to 30 years

・A decrease is expected in the usability of freshwaters from Central, South, East, and Southeast Asia, especially in the large river “catchment areas.” Coupled with an increase in population, by 2050 these negative effects are expected to be felt by upwards of 1 billion people.

■Agriculture and Food Supplies

・By the second half of the 21st century, grain production could possibly increase by as much as 20% in East and Southeast Asia; however, in Central Asia and South Asia this is expected to decrease by as much as 30%. Combined with other factors, extremely high risks of starvation are expected to continue in certain parts of developing countries.

■Coastal Lines

・Coastal regions – particularly the densely populated “mega-delta” regions of South, East, and Southeast Asia— face the highest risks.

■Health

・Increased rates of death and diarrhea-related diseases caused by flood and draught are expected in East, South, and Southeast Asia due to changes in water cycles.


Small Island States

■Coastal Regions

・Dwellings, facilities, and infrastructures which support community welfare and livelihood are all threatened by decreases in national land due to higher sea levels, flooding, high tides, and increased erosion areas.

■Water Resources

・If in 2050 the average precipitation levels of the small island states in the Pacific Ocean fall by 10%, the freshwater lens will decrease by 20%.

■Industry

・Seashore erosion, coral reef deterioration and whitening will occur due to higher sea levels and higher seawater temperatures, resulting in the severe decline of tourism, which is a major industry.



Figure 12　Expected effects on developing nations



The Process for Adaptation Policy


（図は、元が英語なので翻訳不要）


Adaptation Policy Option ①
Technological Options


Policy Options


Socioeconomic Options




Technology


Info and Knowledge


Legal System


Human Resources


Social System


Economic System

Foods


・Adoption and development of high-temperature-

tolerant cultivars

・Transferal of cultivation areas

・Altering cultivation methods

・Controlling animal housing environments

・Establishing harvest seasons

・Transferal of aqua-farming regions, development of aqua-farming technologies


・Gathering and arranging information from promoters of agricultural improvement


・Support and leadership building to teach elderly farmers about adaptation policies

・Setting up no-fishing zones based on expected routes of fish and changes in fishing-area formations


・Offering information and human resources development to agricultural development promoters and agricultural management consultants


・Reconsideration of water-use conventions to adjust to extended cropping and drainage seasons


・Making use of mutual aid systems (acceleration of damage assessment), and damage claims

Water

Environ-

ment

・

Water Resources




・Introduction of raw water transmission and sewage administration systems

・Desalination of sea water

・Making use of reclaimed waters and rain waters

・Prevention measures against underwater salination

・Nutrient enrichment measures

・Distribution of water conservation devices


・Selecting processes for water purification


・Improvement of water transportation systems (usage conversion from agricultural water to city water based on decrease of arable lands)

・Deep groundwater pumping regulations to stop ground sinkage


・Improving water conservation awareness


・Redistribution of water use rights and farmland aggregation

・Introduction of mechanisms for regional flexible distribution of water during dry spells


・Levy system based on restrictions in use of deep groundwater （to suppress the further sinking of ground levels）

Natural

Ecosystem




・Designating and preserving evacuation areas

・Establishing corridors

・Moving from artificial cedar foresting to natural forestation

・Discovery and prevention of early-stage pine decay

・Installation of fences and other protective equipment for deer in high mountain ranges

・Reduction in environmental load materials


・Establishing monitoring systems for each ecosystem


・Reassessment and expansion of natural preservation regions

・ Regulations

on the artificial

transplanting of life and outflow

・Imposing limits on tourist activities


・Cultivation of volunteers to help with monitoring

・Increasing awareness about coral protection and pressure reduction in alpine regions and wetlands


・Forming agreements between all engaged parties on strategies to combat the current effects of global warming

Disaster

Prevention・

Coastal

Cities


・Alterations in architectural styles

・Maintenance and improvement of coastal preservation equipment

・Strengthening of drainage systems

・Installation of “super embankments”

・Effective utilization of pre-existing facilities

・Increasing life-span

・Comprehensive sediment administration in river and coastal regions

・Restructuring of dam systems


・Hazard maps

・Info services

・Increase in monitoring


・Regulations and alterations that consider damage prevention (i.e., construction and settling prohibitions and restrictions in dangerous regions）

・Comprehensive coastal line administration


・Emergency drills and establishment of disaster education infrastructures


・Establishment of independent disaster prevention agencies


・Creation of system of flood insurance, with resident affiliation

・Creation of disaster recovery aid and subsidies

Adaptation Policy Option ②

Technological Options

Policy Options
Socioeconomic Options

Technology


Info and Knowledge


Legal Systems


Human Resources


Social System


Economic System

Health


・Development of infectious disease vaccines and new medical treatments

・Removal of infection-carrying mosquitoes from environment, administration of larval control, etc.

・Suspending the emission of air pollutants


・Creation and distribution of insurance guide manuals about heat-related illnesses

・Enactment of infectious diseases surveillance

・Tracking and investigating disease-carrying vector insects


・Instituting a system of ordinances on heat stroke prevention

・Care for elderly households (i.e., starting care systems, town hall meetings and volunteer care groups, etc）


・Human resource cultivation as a preventive measure

･Cultivating and promoting a general awareness of health and body maintenance


・Starting support teams at workplaces and schools




Daily Life・

City Life

・Strengthening buildings to lessen future damage

・Promoting use of paints and other building materials that have thermal barriers and heat insulation

・Removing disease-carrying insects and “sanitary pests” from environment

・Restoring greenery to environment


・Hazard maps

・Introducing and promoting guidebooks about dangers of heat stroke and other heat-related illnesses


・Establishing measures to help the elderly combat heat (i.e., starting care systems, town hall meetings, etc.）

・“Cool Biz” campaigns

・Summer daylight savings time


・Establishing disaster drill training and disaster prevention educational programs


・Establishment of independent disaster prevention organizations


・Enacting extreme weather risk avoidance measures that make use of weather derivatives

Develop-

ing Countries

・Modification of agricultural and regional irrigation systems

・Water resources: rain water collection, measures against soil erosion

・Ecosystems: growth and development; reduction of land and habitat segmentation; establishing buffer areas

・Disaster prevention and coastal lines: protection of wetlands; reduction of glacier levels using artificial means

・Health: Improvement of health services and facilities; application of technologies to prevent mediated diseases


・Agriculture: submission of weather forecast information

・Water resources: water resource monitoring to reassess national policy

・Ecosystems: monitoring of vulnerable ecosystems

・Disaster prevention: strengthening of early warning systems for coast lines; weather, and water services


・Agriculture: establishment of grain banks

・Water resources: development of water resources; flood, and draught systems

・Ecosystems: strengthening of forestry administration

・Crisis administration planning to address disaster prevention, coast lines, and rising sea levels

・Health: Public health policies that demonstrate awareness of climate risks


・Agriculture: enacting programs dealing with preservation and administration of water and soil

・Ecosystems: empowering organizations to regulate land use


・Health: improvement of public education and literacy


・Agriculture: crop species insurance; providing tax breaks and subsidized grants

・Water resource: bank loans to help purchase rainwater storage tanks・Ecosystems: administrative policies that take into account socioeconomic factors

・Review of disaster prevention and damage insurances

・Industry: diversification of tourism resources

What do we mean by “smart adaptation”?

○　Adaptation means adjusting natural and social conditions in order to address the effects of climate change.

○　What is necessary is “smart adaptation”— which considers a range of effective and efficient adaptation policies that are based on future forecasts and the particular vulnerabilities of each region.

Assessment of the particular vulnerabilities of each region

An emphasis on monitoring

The combining of a variety of options

Policy options

Consideration of both “hard” and “soft” policies

The mainstreaming of adaptation (integration with pre-existing policies)

Plans for disaster prevention and other measures

Consideration of both the short term and the long term

Allowing leeway in considerations

Coalition with related organizations

“Smart Adaptation” . . .

①Makes use of most the recent results of regional monitoring and vulnerability assessment

→Enacting early warming systems, arranged by order of regional priority

②Combines the various adaptation policy options after thorough investigation

→ Both “hard” and “soft” policies, technologies, legal systems, economic approaches, information upgrading, and human resource cultivation

③Leaves room for leeway, considers policies that respond to temperature width, and considers both the short term and the long term

→Total evaluation within the width of uncertainty, and consideration of cases for structural renovation and disaster recovery

④ Offers disaster recovery plans, and the appropriate integration with any pre-existing policies

→Land use proposals, city planning, agricultural policies, natural preservation policies, idea exchange on adaptation and environmental policy with local authorities

⑤Makes natural and socioeconomic systems more flexible and response-capable

→Improvement of water utility structures, rethinking urban structure to include measures against “heat islands,” establishing evacuation areas and “gallery securement” for natural life, etc.

Challenges for the Future



　The implementation of adaptation policy based on scientific assessment, and the shared accumulation of research findings



→Optimum allocation of revenue and human resources, making clear the priority of each field and region

　Employing a perspective that incorporates a variety of adaptation strategies while learning from previous cases

→Revising all standards, while taking full advantage of infrastructure redevelopment

　Fast and systematic implementation of appropriate adaptation policies

→Thorough monitoring of the formulation of adaptation plans and their effects

　Periodic correspondence about research results and the ongoing shape of the investigation

→ Establishing reviews that are more policy-oriented and that incorporate the participation of all

related departments

Continuing to review adaptation support for developing countries

→ Offering input to departments that promote the “Cool Earth Partnership”

　Promoting additional research about the effects of and adaptation to climate change

→Impact mechanisms, future forecasts, vulnerability assessment, adaptation strategies (technology, policy, socioeconomic), industrial fields